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TAAL presentation is rich in slide-cake... Check this one out for prediction of transaction-processing revenues vs block-subsidy revenues for Nodes! Does TAAL know something we don't?!! Or is this entire conference a proof-of-work for what's about to happen to transactions and block size??
musiq tipped:
0.02 USD
1 year ago
coinspeak tipped:
0.27 USD
1 year ago
I caught the same thing. It looks like 75m tx by Q1. I believe the quote was "if transactions don't reach this level the blockchain experiment is in dire straits"
Interesting. Are they calculating based on the worst case scenario in terms of the BSV price move? People have bee talking about how BTC would crash after the halving but didn’t happen because there were irrational factors at work too. What if the transaction volume doesn’t meet the block subsidy by Q1 2021 but BSV price doubles? Or the other way around? That may change the graph significantly....
john replied:
I believe Calvin et al predicted the demise of MINERS on btc, not btc price. And I think he's going to prove correct, but it takes time for the hopium dreams of amateur miners to fizzle out and spin-down mining rigs (like rasberry pis etc...). But yes, price doubling causes lots of moving parts to be changed, so it will ALWAYS be a fluid situation. That's why it'll be good to be TAAL as they'll have all the nuances monitored and algo-ed to know what to do in case of any situation. Most Nodes will do the same.
benjamin replied:
Wish we had insight into these private miners. Knowing their war chests would be helpful in determining runway left. Belief in # go up inevitability must be driving bizop decisions that betray real-time margins and forecasts at the current tradeable core price... The microstrategy, planB, and other types narratives are critical to their models. Who knows, maybe core can survive as a store with BSV (or like token enabling chain) being the saving grace for medium of exchange necessity. I imagine everyone would say, "why would there be value in that vs just letting BSV eradicate core for all money purposes" -- but, maybe some people will see value in the perceived more censor-resistant widely spread core network of "non-mining nodes" (I know, I know... not real nodes). In that event, maybe those core coins would be like the Yap limestone deposits??
john tipped:
0.01 USD
1 year ago
john replied:
Depends on whether "money" is always backed by an asset, or Nick Szabo is right and money is faith-based. Our answer on btc prospects is outlined fully here: https://streamanity.com/video/E0IXSKs2hrUK & here: https://sym.re/DgeqAPd (money definition)
benjamin tipped:
0.02 USD
1 year ago
benjamin replied:
Watched the video and read the article - enjoyed them "bigly." Your thoughts seem to be dovetailing with where TAAL is taking their token mentality to a large degree. But, yes, faith and expectations drive markets - temporarily at lest. And trust is being re-imagined in a 'trustless' environment. “In this sense, the value of a unit of currency is not the measure of the value of an object, but the measure of one’s trust in other human beings.” ― David Graeber, Debt: The First 5,000 Years In the meantime, we have CEOs saying things like... https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1309110151107018756?s=20
john tipped:
0.12 USD
1 year ago
benjamin replied:
Separately@john -- get ready to lose some 3-1 playoff leads next year... https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1311706897351954437?s=20
musiq replied:
IMO debating "what money is" is as meaningless as old school newspapers and magazine companies debating "what media is" when the web first became hot. When there's a new technology, it never goes according to what people have been believing in, including the inventor of the technology. Even Satoshi Nakamoto himself wouldn't have known "what money is". You can have an opinion but you can never predict something unless you're the God. So I don't completely discount the possibility that BTC people may actually survive based on their cultism. But that's a different story if BSV does well because then BTC won't even be able to back up their store of value narrative. But if that doesn't happen, BTC may keep being around somehow.
benjamin tipped:
0.02 USD
1 year ago
john replied:
I agree that AFTER the first "RECKONING" it won't matter whether people know what money is or not. But that first reckoning hasn't happened yet, so right now it's super important to understand the concept. Altho understanding the concept isn't AS important for BSV folks, it's still super important bc even within BSV certain actions will be taken which take away from the asset value of BSV, and if you own some BSV right now that's relevant to you. Developers, startup founders, and BSV owners should be aware of the pitfalls of anything that does not support these digital currencies being backed by an asset. It's not enough to run around saying it WILL be supported by an asset, we must actually see it happen. If we don't, there's PLENTY of downside in today's BSV price to make grown men cry. btc is doomed, but it will take the next deflationary collapse for it to head towards it's pancake destiny. It would certainly help that process, as well, if CSW sells his btc and bch that can be much worse and must faster than otherwise.
john replied:
LOL, I switched to being a fan of Nawlins-- Philly sports is brutal.
john replied:
Graeber's definition should be titled "debt", debt is based on trust in other human beings. Money is NOT based on trust of other humans. If you can bite down on a gold coin, then measure it on a scale to determine is purity, you don't care about the other person. Gold is gold. the same will be true of BitCoin. The market will decide the price, but the market won't matter for vvery long if there's no asset backing the digital "money"-tokens. In bad times, asset-less faith-based objects have no lower bound. That's when the rubber will meet the road.
benjamin tipped:
0.11 USD
1 year ago
to add mathematical color to this chart: ~70 mm transactions per day / 24 hours / 6 blocks per hour => more than 400,000 transactions per block or > 800 transactions/second (assume Visa is 2-4k per second on average) and about $100 per block using 2/100ths of a penny per avg transaction. Parity would be 6.25 BSV x $170 = ~ $1,000 per block in transaction processing fees. Doing reverse math, using 2/100ths of a penny per avg transaction, that would be > 8,000 transactions per second, about Visa parity (by Q1 2021?). OR, at 2/10ths of a penny per avg (400 MB) transaction, 800 transactions per second (which sounds a lot more reasonable). Many moving parts here, it would be really cool to get more color on what TAAL's predictions/assumptions are for: Average transaction size Node fees per Byte # of transactions No matter how you slice it, these slides will get more inspection and attention in the coming weeks for sure!
I suspect it is what is necessary to happen